Gujarat- will it be again saffronised?

Just a day after BJP scripted yet another historic win in four states in the recently concluded assembly elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a massive public rally in election bound state of Gujarat which may go to polls during the year end. At the same time, an embattled Congress is still busy analyzing factors possible behind its dismal performance in the assembly election.

The energy and vigor with which BJP began its Gujarat mission is more than enough to announce its hunger to once again win over the state which has consistently voted BJP to power, since 1995. While Congress is yet to tide over its permanent issues, such as, internal bickering and occasional attendance and presence of its high-profile leaders at public places (read Rahul Gandhi), a lacuna is ineluctable.

In order to fill up the vacuum created by Congress, a new yet a-party-to-reckon-with, Aam Aadmi Party is preparing itself to grip the baton seemingly passed on to it by Congress. In the 1980s, Congress used to rely upon the KHAM formula to win over Gujarat, formed in 1960 after following its defection from the state of Maharashtra. The KHAM formula, being an abbreviation of Kshatriya,Harijan,Adivasi and Muslim, used to be one of the decisive factors in the assembly election of the state.

Until 1995 Congress’ juggernaut expeditiously moved onto the winning formula of KHAM. It was 1995 assembly election when a well prepared BJP stormed into the power by dismantling congress off the throne, winning 121 seats of total 182 seats, thus successfully applying brakes upon the Congress’ unperturbed political journey in the state, till then. In the same election of 1995 which saw the rise and rise of BJP till date in the state, a patidar strongman, Keshubhai Patel was the party’s chief ministerial face.

Once the election was over, Keshubhai Patel sworn in as the first ever BJP chief minister to the state who would run a coalition-less government, therefore signaling a rise of BJP in the state. The government led by Patel could not last for more than two years, as it succumbed to the defection affected by Shankarsinh Vaghela another influential leader of that time belonging to BJP. As a result of the defection, Patel lost the chief ministerial berth and Vaghela throned himself as the chief minister until 1998.

The next assembly election in the state took place in 1998, which did not dent the BJP’s prospectus of retaining the power in the state. In this election also BJP was successful in securing around 45% votes of the total polled votes and in winning 117 seats, comfortably enough to form the government. More or less, the same electoral habit has been in practice till date with BJP meeting no serious opposition from any political party.

Though in 2017, Congress showed some competence and tried to put up a tough fight against BJP, BJP was successful enough in keeping its head over water by forming government a record sixth time in a row. In the last assembly election held in the state, back in 2017, Congress bagged 77 seats against 99 of BJP. Although Congress could not carry itself over the boundary line, since 2017 it has been successful enough in forming a formidable opposition, the rarest of the scenes these days.

In 2022, when the election in the state is around six months away, it’s very likely that BJP may once again form the government provided its sweeping performance in the just held assembly election. Unlike BJP, Congress leaders have gone on hibernation and will only break the shackles of heavy slumber, when the dates of the election will be made public.           

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