Bi-polarity or multi-polarity.

 

The silence of BSP supremo Mayawati over election campaigning in poll bound state of Uttar Pradesh has been sending feelers to the opposition camps. That why Mayawati chose to take course of muted campaign is still an unearthed tactics. Normally, Mayawati is known for her scathing remarks upon opposition leaders, but this time her not-so-natural action has mystified even political analysts.

Many political commentators have infact begun terming her not to be in the race and almost all opinion polls have given her party some 15 to 20 seats only. Strategically, Mayawati on her every birthday showcases her political influence by throwing up a grand feast. This time her low-key affair has forced other rivals to transit their strategy accordingly.

A look at the different political parties’ prospects in the Uttar Pradesh becomes evident when there’s an ongoing debate whether this election is a bi-polar or multi-polar contest.

Bhartiya Janta Party

Riding on the popular wave of Hindutava ideology, the party scripted a historic win back in 2017 by scalping 312 seats of total 403 seats. Along with its co-partners party was successful in winning as many as 325 seats. This time the situation is quite different to that of 2017. Following the abrogation of three farm laws, BJP has tried to do some damage control particularly in western U.P where the Jat community forms the major part of the population. The party has stitched up a coalition with a few parties which have the potential to affect the poll results.

Western U.P is known for its agricultural lands, hence, a large number of farmers belong to the region. The party enjoys a healthy list of star campaigners which includes Amit Shah, J.P Nadda, Rajnath Singh, Yogi Adityanath and Narendra Modi himself. Since the announcement of dates of the election, party has initiated solving the issues of disgruntled members with full effectiveness. The chief instrument of BJP is that it reduces the opposition parties to nothingness.  Consequently, complete erosion of opposition parties takes place, thus putting the existence of theirs in danger. Opinion polls have clearly given a full majority to the party; however some seats seemingly parting their ways.

Samajwadi Party

By sending out the message of two young leaders coming together and contesting election to change the fortune of people Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav tried to retain power back in 2017, only to fail miserably. The party was rounded up by winning only as many as 47 seats. The colossal loss was an indication that foreseeable future might be a bleak one for the party. The indication proved to be true when party in 2019 partnered with Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to give a much needed impetus. The alliance was brutally knocked down and ended up gobbling only 15 seats.

This time party chief Akhilesh Yadav has left no stone unturned in reviving the party’s fortune. He’s been bringing core electoral issues in his election campaigns for a while now, such as, dearth of employment, miserable health conditions, rising inflation, escalating crime rates, etc.  Besides this, the former chief minister of the state has stitched up a coalition with some smaller but significant outfits. In eastern U.P, the party has taken SBSP into confidence. SBSP once an ally of NDA government, enjoys a substantial influence over Rajbhar votes. The party had won 4 seats of 8 allotted. Whereas in western U.P, S.P has woven a partnership with RLD which enjoys a greater influence over Jatland. Unlike BJP, S.P lacks star campaigners given the fact that barring Akhilesh Yadav no other leader is as much influential as BJP leaders are.  Despite of this, the party seems to be giving a neck to neck fight as per the opinion polls.

Bahujan Samaj Party

In the year 1981, the then most influential leader of dalits, Kanshi Ram made the Dalit Shosit Samaj Sangharsh Samiti (DS4) in order to uplift the demands of downtroddens. Later on he took Mayawati into confidence and gave her a  prominent place in the party. Election of 2022 has so far witnessed a complete silence from Mayawati which means she may be working upon an out of the box sort of plan. Following the demise of Kanshi Ram, Mayawati has risen through the ranks and has almost always projected herself as the savior of dalits. 2017 assembly election was a major setback for the party as it was bundled out with 19 MLAs only. Cut to 2022, the party is down to 7 MLAs.

The list of star campaigners looks almost empty with Satish Chandra being the only leader who has been somehow trying to boost up party’s fortune. Taking Mayawati lightly could be a mammoth mistake by the rivals given her stature amongst dalits. She has been a four times C.M of the state. She takes pride in being the first C.M of the state to complete a full tenure. Returning to power, however, seems to be a distant dream for Mayawati if opinion polls are to be believed.

Indian National Congress

Seemingly the party is fighting for its existence. The grand old party of India which takes pride in contributions made by former party leaders in making India an independent nation, had bagged only as many as seven seats back in 2017 assembly elections. Since then, there has been an ongoing efflux of the legislators, bringing down the number to 2 MLAs only. Party secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has set the election pitch high by making an attempt to woo women voters in particular.

There has been an inclination of the party towards being the sympathizers to the family members of the victims of the gruesome incidents. Once upon a time the oldest party of India used to enjoy a significant rapport in the state when leaders like N.D Tiwari, V.P Singh, Shripati Mishra were the torchbearers. Since 1989, the party is desperate to make some inroads in the most populous state. The opinion polls have predicted its further slackening, by giving it only 3-4 seats.

It’s remained to be seen whether the assembly election of U.P is a bi-polar or multi-polar contest. As the election draws closer, the introduction of illegal methods to garner votes has come into play. Forming government may not be a cakewalk this time given the prevalent polarization and anti-incumbency.